NFL betting strategy
NFL Point Spread Betting in Maryland
The point spread is the most-bet NFL market; the league's parity and 50/50 game structure makes spread betting the default wager. Maryland sportsbooks price spreads at -110 standard juice with frequent reduced-juice promotions.
How NFL Spreads Work
The favorite (negative number) must win by more than the spread. The underdog (positive number) can lose by less than the spread or win outright. Half-points eliminate pushes.
Key Numbers in NFL
NFL games disproportionately end on certain margins: 3, 7, 10, 14. Buying or selling these numbers materially changes expected value.
- 3 = most common NFL margin (~15% of games)
- 7 = second most common (~10%)
- Buying from -3 to -2.5: small price increase, large probability shift
- Selling from +3 to +3.5: get extra protection against the most common loss margin
NFL Spread Strategy
Spread movements concentrate around key numbers. Open at -2.5, move to -3, stick at -3 for days before any further movement. Lock in your number before it crosses 3.
Ravens -3.5 vs Bengals +3.5
- Ravens win by 4+: spread bettors win
- Ravens win by 3 or less: spread bettors lose
- Bengals win or lose by 3 or less: spread bettors win
- No push possible due to half-point
Related Pages
Pick a Maryland Sportsbook for NFL
The right operator matters; line speed, market depth, and live betting refresh rate vary meaningfully across the 12 Maryland sportsbooks.
NFL Spreads FAQs
Why are NFL spreads always -110?
Standard juice. Risk $110 to win $100; the $10 is the sportsbook's margin. To break even on -110 spread bets, you must win 52.4% of them.
Should I buy a half point on NFL spreads?
When buying from -3.5 to -3, or -7.5 to -7, the price increase is often worth the probability shift. Buying through other half-points (e.g., -5.5 to -5) is usually negative EV.
What's the best NFL spread sportsbook in Maryland?
FanDuel and DraftKings offer the most stable -110 pricing. BetMGM and Caesars frequently run reduced-juice (-105) promotions.